Thanksgiving Week is very much a turning point in the NFL season.
Teams not on pace to make the playoffs tend to lose their way post-Turkey Day, be it actual tanking for draft positioning, coaches and front offices kicking the tires on younger players, or guys just giving up on a losing year.
Many of those teams mailing it in for the final weeks of the schedule are the ones getting the points, which can make betting NFL underdogs – which I do exclusively in this column – a touch tricky.
Since 2020, underdogs have covered the NFL odds at a 51% clip from Week 12 onward, a dip from the 54% success rate against the spread for dogs from Week 1 to Week 11 in that same span.
Give those late-season pups a cushion of six points or more – which is often those clubs packing it in – and that ATS clip sinks to 47%.
Pad those lines with more than a touchdown (+7.5 or higher) and the biggest underdogs on the board come through less than 45% of the time in the final seven weeks of the past three seasons.
It’s something to keep in mind as you scour the Week 12 odds and beyond.
Here’s hoping my favorite underdog NFL picks and predictions for Week 12 are still barking by Thanksgiving.
Last week: 2-0-1 ATS
Season: 18-13-2 ATS
