It’s Thanksgiving weekend and the NFC South picture is about as clear as it was in Week 1. Well, at least we know Carolina’s not winning it.
That “magic eye” picture of a division will start to come into focus following Week 12, with the Atlanta Falcons playing host to the New Orleans Saints this Sunday.
The NFL odds for this game aren’t helping with the uncertainty, with the spread jumping the fence in the first few days of action and eventually settling at a market consensus of Atlanta -1.
I dig into that tight spread as well as the Over/Under total for this NFC South showdown and give my best NFL picks for the Saints vs. Falcons on November 26.
Saints vs Falcons odds
Saints vs Falcons predictions
With quarterback Derek Carr questionable for Week 12 as he recovers from a concussion, the New Orleans Saints will lean into dual-threat QB Taysom Hill heavily in Week 12. Even if Carr is on the field, you can expect Hill to get plenty of touches.
Hill played just 32 snaps (only one at QB) in the loss to Minnesota in Week 10, carrying the ball one time for six yards rushing. This low output was more situational, with New Orleans falling behind the Vikings early on and being forced to abandon the run.
Before that loss to Minnesota, Hill had amassed totals of 52 and 63 yards rushing vs. Chicago and Indianapolis. He recorded a collective 20 carries in those contests and played 44 and 35 snaps, including 23 of those at QB.
This weekend’s matchup with the Atlanta Falcons sets the table for a bounce-back game for Hill, especially if he gets more snaps under center. He’s been a thorn in the side of Atlanta throughout his career.
In 12 head-to-head meetings with the Falcons, Hill averages more than 30 rushing yards per meeting and picks up 7.4 yards per carry. In last year’s installments of this NFC South rivalry, Hill rushed for days of 30 and 81 yards on 11 total carries.
“He can do a lot back there,” Falcons head coach Arthur Smith told the media when asked about Hill. “He can push the ball down the field if they want to get him in the play-action game. They’ve got the direct run package. It’s amazing how all of our brains work because I can think of all of the bad plays — good for him, but bad against us. He’s done that a lot. He’s a very unique player.”
Atlanta’s run defense has been solid overall, but there have been cracks forming during its three-game losing skid. The Falcons, who rank No. 3 in EPA allowed per run on the season, have slipped to 19th during this skid and it’s been quarterbacks doing the bulk of the damage on the ground.
Atlanta allowed 33 yards rushing to Kyler Murray in his first game back for Arizona, got shredded by Joshua Dobbs for 66 yards rushing in his Minnesota debut, and even allowed 14 rushing yards to the aging legs of Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill back in Week 8. So far in 2023, the Falcons have allowed the eighth most rushing yards to QBs along with four rushing TDs to the position — most in the NFL.
So, is Taysom Hill a quarterback? I dunno.
Player projections range greatly for Hill’s rushing production in Week 12, with some models as low as 13 yards and others flirting with 28 yards rushing. The industry consensus comes out to 20.29, which is just past his rushing yards prop of 19.5 (Over -110).
Given Carr’s concussion concerns, Hill’s history, Atlanta’s issues with running QBs, and some well-respected forecasts calling for 24 yards or more, I’m going “Over the Hill” with Tayson’s rushing yards in Week 12.
My best bet: Taysom Hill Over 19.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Saints vs Falcons same-game parlay
Taysom Hill Over 19.5 rushing yardsTaysom Hill anytime touchdownRashid Shaheed Over 37.5 receiving yards
+700 at bet365
Since 2022, NOLA is 12-1 SU in the 13 games in which Hill gets at least 10 touches (runs/receptions). Taysom will terrorize the Falcons on the ground again. In 12 career games vs. Atlanta, Hill has found the end zone five times (four rushing, one receiving TD).
Rashid Shaheed is a threat to break off a home run play anytime he touches the ball and he’ll see more targets with Michael Thomas out. He had 95 yards receiving in last year’s meeting with the Falcons.
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